As leading makers increase their 3D NAND bit output, prices of flash memory drop due to oversupply.
Analysts from TrendForce estimate that client SSDs currently account for 31% of 3D NAND bit supply, enterprise drives consume 20%, eMMC/UFS storage devices use 41% of 3D NAND bits, whereas only 8% of 3D NAND bit output is sold as raw wafers.
TrendForce researchers claim that in Q1 2021 four 3D NAND makers - Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and YMTC - plan to expand their 3D NAND bit output, which will spark competition and will cause a 10% - 15% quarter-over-quarter decline of 3D NAND average selling price in Q1 2021.
Secondly, 3D NAND suppliers are actively sending samples of their 1xx-layer 3D NAND to SSD makers thus energetically supporting launch of new drives.
New drives based on 1xx-layer 3D NAND will still be cheaper on per-bit basis than existing SSDs. In any case, TrendForce predicts that client SSD prices will drop by 10% to 15% in Q1 2021.
As a result, TrendForce believes that due to dropping demand for everything towards the end of Q1, prices of mobile storage devices will drop by 5% to 10%. Many types of 3D NAND based products, including SSDs, flash drives, and memory cards, are in a state of oversupply, according to TrendForce.
Aggressive selling of high-density 3D NAND wafers to third-party SSD makers creates bit oversupply on the wafer market, which will cause a 15% quarter-over-quarter price drop in Q1 2021, the analysts predict.